What Was the Change?
The change for 2023 is that your first daily attempt across your Battle.net account has increased drop chance. This was coded by using the quest flag 74957. Obtaining a Heart-Shaped Box without having that quest completed resulted in a higher droprate for X-45 Heartbreaker in said Heart-Shaped Box and marked the quest flag 74957 as completed for the day.
Data for the Change
Since we didn’t know how this increase was going to be implemented, we didn’t have time to prepare the Wowhead Client to collect the data properly, so the data we have for this year isn’t filtered only by first attempts. However, even without this change, the result is visible.
From 2010 to 2022, we recorded 929,074 openings of Heart-Shaped Box. Out of those, 315 contained a X-45 Heartbreaker, a rate of 0.03%. In 2023, we recorded 33,905 openings of Heart-Shaped Box, of which 97 contained a X-45 Heartbreaker, resulting in a rate of 0.29%. Meaning that, out of a total of 412 drops ever recorded with the Wowhead Client, 97, or 23% happened in 2023 alone.
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Even without filtering the data for only first openings, this results in a 10x droprate increase, from 0.03% to 0.3%. Since this data is polluted, the actual first try of the day is likely higher than shown. Using this data and observing community results, the droprate in your first attempt of the day is likely around 1%. Considering you will have 15 attempts in a year, this results in a 14% chance that someone trying to get the mount will do so in a given year.
To put it in perspective, this 14% chance is the equivalent of running the event on 30 characters every day during Love is in the Air with the regular droprate.
Final Thoughts About the Drop Rate Change
Overall, personally, I can’t contest that it was a positive change for the mount. Before, it was a mostly unreasonable grind, requiring most to have numerous alts and dedicate most hours of their February playtime to running a dungeon over and over. The increased chance on your first attempt is also a good compromise, bridging the gap between the effectiveness of alts in the overall grind system. Having that in place would probably be a better solution to Pandaria World Boss mount drops than the solution done by Blizzard.
The community feeling behind this change isn’t universal. Some players have felt hollow and empty after getting it on their first attempt, invoking feelings as if they had “cheated” the grind, while others have felt happy by getting a mount that they would otherwise realistically never obtain. Personally, I can understand both sides. Having done the grind to obtain this mount before the change, I can understand those who feel that this cheats the system, and I agree. But the system in place was an awful system to begin with, which should not have been in place. In my opinion, Astronomically-low droprate rewards like that aren’t rewarding and create a toxic environment that praises unhealthy behaviors akin to bashing your head against a wall until you get a concussion.
With all that, what are your thoughts on the change? Do you like it? Hate it? Do you think Blizzard should add other low drop rate mounts while having the same system in place?
